Network Science Analysis for Nonproliferation Likelihood


D. Sweeney, J. Kornell, “Network Science Analysis for Nonproliferation Likelihood” Annual Meeting of Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM), Indian Wells, CA, USA, 12-15 July 2015.

The dynamics of nuclear weapons proliferation are not yet fully understood. This may be due in part to a lack of understanding of the countervailing drivers of nonproliferation. Early studies have correlated a lack of global economic integration and lack of super powers alliances with a greater likelihood of proliferation. More recent studies have revealed that the inverse is also true: positive relationships and strong ties with states that value nonproliferation indicate a decreased proliferation likelihood. These results suggest that nonproliferation motivation may be spread through international relations as a counter to proliferation motivations. Quantification of the ability to spread nonproliferation motivation could further develop the understanding of the dynamics of nuclear weapons proliferation and support nonproliferation policy development. It is possible to characterize states’ international relationships through network science. This type of analysis may provide a technical means to quantify the dynamics of nonproliferation motivations and impact on nonproliferation likelihood. This paper examines the extent that nonproliferation influences and motivation can be characterized through network science parameters.